Against all odds, former President Donald Trump was reelected on Nov. 5, ousting Vice President Kamala Harris, winning the popular vote for the GOP for the first time since 2004, decisively winning the Electoral College and reclaiming the U.S. Senate, all as only the second former president to win reelection after Grover Cleveland did it in 1892 with non-consecutive terms in what can only be described as the greatest political comeback in American history.
Trump dodged bullets, prosecutions, convictions, censorship and overcame the historic incumbency advantage — first term incumbent parties usually win about two-thirds of the time, but not this time — able to capitalize on inflation outpacing incomes, wages and earnings for too long during the Biden-Harris administration as Americans paid the price at the grocery store and gas pump, more than 8 million illegal border crossings by illegal aliens who Trump promised to deport and endless foreign wars that threaten to spark a wider conflict or even nuclear war.
The Biden-Harris administration was unpopular, and Democrats lost major ground in very blue states that would normally constitute their majority in the national popular vote. In 2020, President Joe Biden won New York by 23.5 points, but on Nov. 5, Harris only won it by 10 points. In New Jersey, Biden won it by 16 points, but Harris only won it by 6 points. In Illinois, Biden won by 17 points, but Harris only won it by 4 points. In California, Biden won it by 29 points, but Harris is only leading it by 21 points.
And in red states, Trump built on his working and middle class coalition with his twin messages on trade and immigration. In 2020, Trump won Florida by 3.5 points, but in 2024, he won it by 13 points. In Texas, in 2020, Trump won it by 5.5 points, but in 2024, he won it by 14.6 points. In Ohio, Trump won it by 8 points, but in 2024, Trump won it by 11.5 points.
It’s like that everywhere, where Trump overperformed dramatically in blue areas and red areas, it didn’t matter, securing the first Republican win of the national popular vote, again, since 2004, currently leading decisively 51 percent to 47.5 percent. This is a crushing defeat for Democrats by modern standards.
In the Electoral College, Trump currently leads 277 to 226, with North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania putting Trump over the top, and with leads in Michigan, Arizona, Nevada and Alaska, which, if they all come through, Trump could get up to 312. For Republicans that have struggled to put together Electoral College majorities the past 24 years, that is a landslide.
And polls once again were wrong, dramatically understating Trump’s support both nationally and in key battleground states as the so-called “shy” Trump voter showed to polls in the early vote and on Nov. 5 in droves in the one of the most shocking upsets in U.S. political history.
Swapping out the incumbent President Joe Biden for Harris, who was untested by the primaries and was unable to build her coalition in time for the election, might have been one of the greatest blunders in American political history.
All the signs were there that in hindsight make the outcome appear to have been obvious. Right-track, wrong-track polls, Trump leading Harris by double digits on the economy, immigration and foreign policy, Trump making historic inroads with Black, Hispanic and young Americans and even women. For Republicans, Trump has built the most diverse coalition since Ronald Reagan and Richard Nixon.
As a result, Republicans have reclaimed the U.S. Senate, winning at least 52 seats with pickups in West Virginia, Ohio and Montana, leading in Pennsylvania and Michigan and Nevada too close to call. At the end of the day, Trump could get to 53, 54 or maybe even 55 seats.
The House of Representatives is too close to call at the moment, with massive implications to Trump’s proposed legislative agenda including on tax cuts, the budget and restructuring the federal government, but if Republicans keep the House, they can thank Trump for campaigning in those blue areas including New York, New Jersey, Illinois and elsewhere. That is certainly something to keep an eye on, but if it stays Republican, Trump will have to be mindful of the limited window of opportunity he will have before the 2026 midterms to deliver on his promises.
Either way, there are challenges ahead, with the U.S. on the brink of a potential recession with unemployment up almost 1.3 million since Dec. 2022. The economy may yet get a so-called soft landing, but nothing’s guaranteed, and so the economy will undoubtedly be top of mind for the President-Elect.
Trump has promised to usher in a new “golden age” in America, and with the inroads he has made in traditional Democratic constituencies, his victory in 2024 could signal a potential realignment in U.S. politics. But now comes the hard part—as if the election wasn’t hard enough—and that is to govern. A lot depends on how the remaining races in Congress shake out, but with the popular vote, Trump has a mandate that alluded Republicans for 20 years.
This was the greatest comeback in political history.
— Robert Romano is vice president of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government.
